BTC Price Prediction: 2025-2040 Forecasts Amid Institutional Boom and Macro Risks

#BTC

• Technical Outlook: Short-term bearish pressure below 20-day MA, but MACD suggests impending reversal
• Market Sentiment: Institutional adoption (MicroStrategy, Coinbase) battles macro risks (tariffs, liquidations)
• Long-Term Trajectory: 2025-2040 forecasts hinge on halving cycles and Bitcoin's role in global finance

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Short-Term Correction Within Bullish Trend

According to BTCC financial analyst Michael, Bitcoin is currently trading at $114,910.83, slightly below its 20-day moving average of $118,071.69, suggesting a short-term bearish momentum. However, the MACD shows bullish divergence with the histogram at 2010.22, indicating potential upward pressure. Bollinger Bands show price hovering near the lower band ($115,683.95), which may act as support. 'This consolidation is healthy after the recent rally,' Michael notes. 'The MACD crossover suggests accumulation, and we could see a rebound toward $120,459 (upper Bollinger Band) if buying volume returns.'

Market Sentiment: Institutional Adoption vs. Macro Uncertainty

BTCC's Michael highlights conflicting signals from recent news: 'Institutional adoption is accelerating with MicroStrategy's $10B Bitcoin-driven profit and Coinbase's expansion, but macro risks like Trump's tariffs and long liquidations ($600M) create volatility.' The movement of 2010 bitcoin (possibly Satoshi's) adds speculative intrigue. 'The Winklevoss lobbying and DFINITY's Bitcoin 2.0 initiative show structural bullishness, but traders should expect choppy price action near-term,' he adds.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

MicroStrategy Posts $10 Billion Net Income in Q2 Fueled by Bitcoin Rally

MicroStrategy reported a staggering $10.02 billion net income for Q2 2024, marking a dramatic reversal from prior losses. Earnings per share reached $32.60 as the company's Bitcoin treasury strategy paid massive dividends.

The business intelligence firm disclosed $14.03 billion in operating income - a 7,106% year-over-year explosion. Revenue grew modestly to $114.5 million, while fair value accounting treatments continued for the second consecutive quarter.

MicroStrategy's aggressive bitcoin accumulation strategy has amassed 628,791 BTC at an average cost of $73,277 per coin. With Bitcoin's 30% Q2 price surge, paper gains now exceed $26 billion. "We've achieved a 25% BTC yield year-to-date, surpassing our annual target ahead of schedule," CFO Andrew Kang noted.

Super Ancient Bitcoin From 2010 Moves After 15 Years—Could It Be Satoshi?

On-chain data reveals a startling development: Bitcoin mined over 15 years ago has suddenly become active. Two transactions involving dormant miner wallets from April 2010—each holding 50 BTC—were executed simultaneously. These coins, worth mere pennies at the time of mining, now command a staggering $5.9 million valuation.

The transactions share striking similarities, suggesting a single entity orchestrated the moves. While the receiving addresses differed, the timing and methodology point to coordinated action. Given the era of these wallets, speculation inevitably turns to Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin's enigmatic creator. Early miners from 2010 represent a vanishingly small cohort, with Satoshi being the most prominent figure associated with that period.

This movement of prehistoric Bitcoin coincides with renewed institutional interest in digital assets. Market observers note such events often precede volatility, as dormant supply entering circulation can impact liquidity dynamics. The transactions were detected by Whale Alert, a service specializing in tracking large cryptocurrency movements.

Institutional Adoption Fuels Bitcoin's Bull Run

Bitcoin's 179% surge since January 2024 reflects a fundamental shift in market dynamics. The cryptocurrency's resilience—repeatedly bouncing back to set new all-time highs—signals deepening institutional conviction rather than speculative froth.

SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January marked a watershed moment, unlocking $55 billion in institutional inflows by late July. Corporate treasuries are following suit, with MicroStrategy's pioneering 2020 MOVE now emulated by over 100 public companies. This institutional embrace transforms Bitcoin's profile from retail-dominated gamble to legitimate asset class.

The narrative has evolved from 'if' to 'how much' as traditional finance players allocate to crypto. While volatility persists, the compounding effect of ETF flows and corporate balance sheet allocations creates structural support absent in previous cycles.

$600M in Longs Wiped as BTC Crashes to 3-Week Low on Trump Tariff Shock

Bitcoin plunged to a three-week low below $114,500 as President Donald Trump's tariff adjustments triggered a market-wide selloff. Over $600 million in long positions were liquidated amid the sharp decline.

The WHITE House imposed new 10% tariffs on most trading partners while raising Canadian duties to 35%. Analysts described the moves as erratic, with The Kobeissi Letter noting the trade war had "lost all credibility." Market volatility spiked as traders recalibrated risk exposure.

Crypto assets showed heightened correlation to traditional markets during the event. The abrupt policy shift underscores digital assets' growing sensitivity to macroeconomic developments.

Coinbase Expands Bitcoin Holdings and Launches Tokenized Stock Platform in the US

Coinbase revealed major strategic moves for the second half of 2025, including a significant increase in its Bitcoin holdings and an ambitious push into tokenized real-world assets. CEO Brian Armstrong announced the exchange acquired an additional 2,509 BTC in Q2, bringing its total holdings to 11,776 BTC—worth $1.26 billion at current valuations. The firm’s cost basis for its Bitcoin treasury stands at $740 million.

The company is aggressively positioning itself as an 'everything exchange,' with plans to launch tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and derivatives for US users. Armstrong emphasized the inevitability of all assets moving on-chain, framing Coinbase’s expansion as a foundational step toward a faster, more global financial system. Despite these ambitions, user dissatisfaction persists over account freezes and suspensions, even after recent platform fixes.

Trump Tariffs Return — What Does It Mean for Bitcoin and Crypto?

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market faced immediate turbulence following Donald Trump's April announcement of new tariffs on key trading partners. The world's largest cryptocurrency plunged to $75,000 as investors feared inflationary pressures and potential recession risks. Markets later recovered when the White House granted temporary reprieves for trade negotiations.

The August 1 deadline has now arrived with mixed outcomes. While major economies like the EU, UK, Japan and South Korea secured deals, fresh tariffs hit developing nations hardest. Canada faces 35% duties on select goods, with Mexico and dozens of other countries now in the crosshairs.

This protectionist pivot creates macroeconomic headwinds that could pressure risk assets. Cryptocurrencies remain particularly sensitive to dollar strength and trade FLOW disruptions. Market participants will watch for capital flight to digital assets if traditional markets weaken.

Bitcoin Boom Fuels Record Quarter for Strategy (Formerly MicroStrategy) in Q2 2025

Strategy, the rebranded enterprise formerly known as MicroStrategy, has shattered earnings records with a $10 billion net income in Q2 2025—a staggering reversal from its $102.6 million loss during the same period last year. The firm’s diluted earnings per share skyrocketed to $32.60, powered by its relentless Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

The company now holds 628,791 BTC on its balance sheet, acquired at a total cost of $46 billion. With Bitcoin’s rally, this hoard is currently valued at $72.7 billion. Strategy’s operational income reached $14 billion for the quarter, while its full-year guidance projects $34 billion in operational income and $24 billion in net income.

Bitcoin’s 31% surge in Q2 alone contributed $14 billion in unrealized gains, propelling Strategy’s year-to-date BTC yield to 25%—exceeding its annual target ahead of schedule. The firm has raised its internal Bitcoin KPIs, now targeting a 30% yield and $20 billion in unrealized BTC gains for 2025.

Bitcoin Dips Amid Profit-Taking and Macro Uncertainty

Bitcoin slipped 2.56% to briefly trade below $114,500 during early Asian hours, marking a pullback from its July 14 all-time high of $123,000. The cryptocurrency now hovers at $115,700 as market participants await fresh macroeconomic catalysts. White House tariff announcements on Asian markets exacerbated the downward pressure.

Despite the dip, Bitcoin's range-bound behavior suggests institutional investors remain largely committed. Galaxy Digital's recent sell-off stands as an exception rather than the rule. On-chain data reveals this constitutes the third major profit-taking wave of the current bull cycle, with new whale cohorts leading the selling above $120,000.

CryptoQuant reports realized profits reaching $6-8 billion in late July, matching previous peaks seen in March and December 2024. The data firm notes recent accumulators - those holding BTC for under 155 days - have been particularly active in taking profits at these elevated price levels.

Record Bitcoin Prices Propel Strategy To First Profit In Six Quarters

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has reported its first profitable quarter in six, driven by a significant rebound in cryptocurrency valuations. The company, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, benefited as BTC surged to a new all-time high above $123,000 following the enactment of the GENIUS Act by former US President Donald Trump.

Holding 597,325 BTC acquired at an average price of $70,982, Strategy recorded an unrealized fair value gain of $14 billion. This marks a dramatic reversal from the previous year's $102.6 million loss. Net profit for Q2 stood at $9.97 billion, or $32.60 per share, as the firm intensified its Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

Michael Saylor's company has entered what analysts describe as a 'hyper-growth phase' for Bitcoin. Historically constrained from recognizing gains unless selling assets, Strategy now capitalizes on favorable regulatory tailwinds and institutional adoption trends.

Winklevoss Brothers Lobby Trump to Withdraw CFTC Nominee Brian Quintenz

Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the billionaire founders of Gemini, have reportedly urged former President Donald TRUMP to reconsider his nomination of Brian Quintenz to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The twins, known for their early Bitcoin investments and political influence, argue Quintenz lacks the vision needed to align the agency with crypto-friendly reforms.

Quintenz, a former CFTC commissioner, faced criticism for his ties to traditional finance and his support for a budget increase to regulate crypto markets—a move viewed as bureaucratic rather than transformative. The White House halted his Senate confirmation vote following industry pushback, signaling growing tension between legacy regulators and crypto advocates.

The Winklevoss brothers’ intervention underscores the high-stakes battle over the CFTC’s role in shaping U.S. crypto policy. Their alignment with Trump’s pro-crypto agenda highlights the industry’s strategic lobbying efforts to install leadership sympathetic to digital asset innovation.

DFINITY and Omnity Network Forge Strategic Alliance to Pioneer Bitcoin 2.0 Revolution

DFINITY, the blockchain powerhouse behind Internet Computer Protocol, has announced a groundbreaking partnership with Omnity Network, an omnichain interoperability platform. The collaboration aims to catalyze a new era of Bitcoin-native innovation by integrating DFINITY's ChainFusion technology with Omnity's cross-chain protocol.

The alliance comes as momentum builds for Runes Asia 2025, a Hong Kong-based summit poised to showcase Asia's leading Bitcoin 2.0 infrastructure. The event will gather key players in BTCFi and Layer-1 Bitcoin development, with this partnership positioned as a cornerstone for programmable Bitcoin ecosystems.

"Exciting times ahead," declared DFINITY's official announcement, highlighting how Omnity Network is pushing boundaries with Runes protocol integration. The collaboration promises to deliver REE (Runes Execution Environment) capabilities and enhanced Bitcoin programmability through their combined technological stack.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

Michael projects Bitcoin could reach $150K by end-2025 if institutional adoption sustains, noting 'The $114K level is a critical accumulation zone.' His 2030 forecast assumes 25% annualized growth post-2028 halving, while 2040 targets reflect Bitcoin potentially surpassing gold's market cap. 'These estimates incorporate cyclical drawdowns of 40-60%,' he cautions.